Speedy Trains Are
Transforming China
【By KEITH BRADSHER／陳世欽譯】
CHANGSHA, China — The cavernous rail station here for China’s new high-speed trains was nearly deserted
when it opened less than four years ago.
Not anymore.
Practically every train is sold out, although they leave for cities all over
the country every several minutes. Long lines snake back from ticket windows in
the departure hall. An ambitious construction program will soon nearly double
the size of the 16-platform station.
Just five years
after China’s high-speed rail system opened, it is carrying nearly twice as many
passengers each month as the country’s domestic airline industry. With traffic
growing 28 percent a year for several years, China’s high-speed rail network will handle more
than 54 million passengers by early next year.
Li Xiaohung, a
factory worker, rides the 700-kilometer route from her Guangzhou home to
Changsha once a month . Ms. Li used to see her daughter once a year because the
trip took a day. Now she comes back in 2 hours 19 minutes. Executives like Zhen
Qinan, a founder of the stock market in coastal Shenzhen, ride bullet trains to
meetings all over China to avoid airport delays. The trains hurtle along at 300
kilometers an hour and are almost invariably punctual, if not early. “I did not think it would change so quickly,” Mr. Zhen said. “High-speed trains seemed like a strange
thing, but now it’s just part of our lives.”
Economists and
transportation experts cite the high-speed rail system as one reason for China’s continued growth when other emerging
economies are faltering. But it has not been without costs — high debt, many people relocated and a
deadly accident.
A paper for the
World Bank this year found that Chinese cities connected to the network are
likely to experience broad growth in worker productivity. Those gains occur
when companies are within a couple of hours’ train ride of millions of potential
customers, employees and rivals.
“What we see very clearly is a change in the way a lot of companies are
doing business,” said Gerald Ollivier, a World Bank transport specialist in Beijing.
Productivity gains
appear to be of the same order as the combined economic gains from the usual
arguments given for highspeed trains, including time savings for travelers,
reduced noise, less air pollution and fuel savings, the World Bank calculated.
Companies are
opening research and development centers in cities like Beijing and Shenzhen
with abundant supplies of young, highly educated workers, and having them take
frequent day trips to factories in cities with lower wages and land costs, like
Tianjin and Changsha.
Li Qingfu, the
sales manager at the Changsha Don Lea Ramie Textile Technology Company, said he
used to travel twice a year to Guangzhou, the commercial hub of southeastern
China. The journey required nearly a full day in each direction.
Mr. Li now goes
almost every month on the bullet trains, which slice straight through the
mountains and valleys of southern Hunan Province and northern Guangdong
Province in a little over two hours . “ My orders have increased by 50 percent,” he said.
China relocated
large numbers of families whose homes lay in the path of the tracks and quickly
built new residential and commercial districts around highspeed train stations.
The new districts
have rapidly attracted large numbers of residents, partly because of China’s rapid urbanization. Enough farm families
become city dwellers each year to fill New York , a city of about 8 million
people.
New subway lines,
rail lines and urban districts are part of China’s heavy dependence on investment-led
growth. China’s new prime minister, Li Keqiang, publicly endorsed further expansion
of the 9,500-kilometer highspeed rail network this summer. He said the country
would invest $100 billion a year in its train system for years to come.
The Chinese
government is already struggling with nearly $500 billion in overall rail debt
, most of it incurred for the highspeed rail system that was financed with
short-term loans.
Another impact:
air travel. Train ridership has soared partly because China has set fares on
high-speed rail lines at a little less than half of comparable airfares and
refrained from raising them.
High-speed trains
are not only allowing business managers from deep inside China to reach bigger
markets. They are also prompting foreign executives to look deeper in China for
suppliers as wages surge along the coast.
“We always used to have to go down south to Guangzhou to meet with
European clients, but now they come up to Changsha more often,” said Hwang Yin, a sales executive at the
Changsha Qilu Import and Export Company.
The only drawback:
“The highspeed
trains are getting very crowded these days.”
中譯
長沙高鐵車站不到四年前啟用時，幾乎乏人問津。
局面已經改變。在這裡，開往中國大陸各大城市的列車每隔幾分鐘就發出一班，班班客滿。售票窗口前大排長龍；一項極具企圖心的擴建計畫即將完成，讓有16個月台的長沙車站規模增加將近一倍。
大陸高鐵上路才五年，每月載客量幾乎已是國內航線的兩倍。大陸交通運量多年來一直以每年28%的比率成長；估計到明年初高鐵的運輸量可超過5400萬人次。
工廠女工李小紅（譯音）每月一次自廣州老家搭高鐵回長沙，里程700公里。過去因為行程需耗掉一整天，她每年只能回家看女兒一次。現在，她只要2小時又19分就能回到長沙。深圳證交所共同創辦人鎮奇南（譯音）常搭子彈列車去大陸各地開會，以避開班機的延誤。這些列車時速300公里，幾乎永遠準時，甚至還會早到。沈奇南說：「我沒想到改變會這麼快。高鐵曾經是陌生而新奇的玩意兒。現在卻走進了我們的生活。」
經濟學家與運輸專家說，其他新興經濟體步履踉蹌之際，中國大陸經濟卻持續成長，高鐵是主因之一。然而這也得付出代價：債台高築，許多人被迫搬遷，以及死傷慘重的車禍。
根據世界銀行今年委製的一份報告，高鐵沿線的大陸各城市勞工生產力可能普獲提升。因為企業可在短短幾個小時的列車車程內，接觸數以百萬計的潛在客戶、勞力及競爭對手。
駐北京的世界銀行運輸專家奧利維爾說：「我們如今可以清楚看到許多企業相繼改變營運方式。」
世銀指出，生產力的提升似乎與高鐵帶來的綜合經濟增長等量齊觀，後者包括旅客節省時間、噪音與空氣汙染減少、節省燃料。
各企業紛紛在北京、深圳等可充分供應受過良好教育年輕員工的大城市設置研發中心，同時經常指派這些研發人員出差，前往設在天津、長沙等薪資、土地成本較低城市的工廠，當天來回。
長沙東籬棉麻紡織品科技有限公司銷售經理李慶富（譯音）表示，他以前每年都會去大陸東南部貿易樞紐廣州出差兩次，單程就要耗去將近一整天。
現在，李金富幾乎每個月都搭子彈列車來回一次。列車直接穿越湖南省南部及廣東省北部的山區、峽谷，單程只需要兩個多小時。他說：「我的訂單多了一半。」
中共當局重新安置原住在高鐵計畫路線上的大批民眾，並在高鐵車站周圍迅速闢建了新的住宅及商業區。這些新區很快就吸引大批民眾入住，中國大陸快速都市化是原因之一。許多農民移居城市，速度快到一年可以達到800萬人，相當於紐約市的人口。
新建的地鐵、鐵路與城市區域，是中國大陸高度仰賴投資引導型成長的部分環節。大陸新總理李克強今夏公開支持擴建總長9500公里的高鐵網。他說，未來幾年，政府每年將為鐵路系統注資1000億美元。
大陸鐵路建設總負債額已接近5000億美元，大多來自以短期貸款融資的高鐵系統，處理起來有些吃力 。
另外一項衝擊：航空旅行。鐵路載客人次大增的原因之一是，當局把高鐵票價訂在略低於同級航空票價之半，一直沒調高。
高鐵不僅使中國大陸內地企業的經營者得以接觸更大的市場，更在沿海地區勞工薪資大漲之際，促使外國企業主管深入內陸尋找供應商。
長沙齊魯進出口公司行銷主管黃寅（譯音）說：「我們以前總得南下廣州去見歐洲來的客戶。如今，他們更常到長沙來。」
唯一的缺點：「高鐵列車現在可擠得很。」
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