Fears of a Robot Takeover Are Likely Premature
In glossy sci-fi movies like “Ex Machina” and “Chappie,” robots move with impressive – and frequently malevolent – dexterity. They appear to confirm the worst fears of prominent technologists and scientists like Elon Musk, Stephen Hawking and Bill Gates, who have voiced alarm over the possible emergence of self-aware machines out to do harm to the human race.
在《機械姬》和《成人世界》這類精采刺激的科幻電影裡，機器人行動的靈活性令人印象深刻，而且往往帶有敵意。它們似乎證實了伊隆．馬斯克、史蒂芬．霍金、比爾．蓋茲這些卓越的科技人和科學家們最大的恐懼：他們已經警告，具有自我意識的機器人可能出現，將禍害人類。
Not so fast. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, a United States Pentagon research arm, recently held its Robotics Challenge in Pomona, California, with a $2 million prize for the robot that performs best in a series of tasks. A preview of their work suggests that nobody needs to worry about a Terminator creating havoc anytime soon. The robots have an hour to complete eight tasks that would take a human less than 10 minutes, like opening a door and entering a room.
沒這麼快。美國國防部研究部門「國防高級研究計劃署」（DARPA）日前在加州莫納舉行機器人挑戰賽，在一系列任務中表現最出色的機器人，團隊獲頒200萬美元獎金。預覽過參賽作品後，發現誰也不用擔心電影魔鬼終結者式的毀天滅地很快就會到來。參賽的機器人有一個小時來完成一個人可能不到十分鐘就能完成的八項任務，像是打開房門後進入房間。
“The extraordinary thing that has happened in the last five years is that we have seemed to make extraordinary progress in machine perception,” said Gill Pratt, the Darpa program manager in charge of the Robotics Challenge.
負責機器人挑戰賽的DARPA專案經理吉爾．普萊特說：「過去五年發生真正意外的事情是，我們似乎在機器感知領域取得驚人的進展。」
Advance in pattern recognition hardware and software has made it possible for computers to make dramatic progress in computer vision and understanding speech, he said. In contrast, Dr. Pratt said, little headway has been made in “cognition,” the higher-level humanlike processes required for true autonomy. “Without the person, these machines could hardly do anything at all,” he said.
他說，模式辨識的硬體與軟體的進步，使電腦在電腦視覺和語音理解的領域得以出現重大進展。普拉特說，在真正自主所必須，像人類高階處理的「認知」層面，反而沒甚麼進展。「沒有人操作，這些機器幾乎什麼事也做不了。」
In fact, the steep challenge in making progress toward mobile robots that can mimic human capabilities is causing robotics researchers worldwide to rethink their goals. Instead of trying to build autonomous robots, many have begun to think instead of creating ensembles of humans and robots.
事實上，要在能模擬人類能力的行動機器人領域取得進展，面臨的挑戰甚大，以致全球的機器人研究者開始重新思考自己的目標。許多研究人員不再嘗試製造自主的機器人，轉而開始思考創造人類和機器人的組合。
Ken Goldberg, a University of California, Berkeley, roboticist, proposed a concept he calls “multiplicity,” with diverse groups of humans and machines solving problems through collaboration.
柏克萊加州大學的機器人學家肯．戈德堡提出所謂「多樣性」的概念，就是讓各種人類和機器團隊通過合作以共同解決問題。
Artificial-intelligence researchers have long noted that the simplest tasks for humans are the most challenging for machines.
人工智慧的研究者早就發現，對人類來說最簡單的任務，對機器卻最困難。
“The intuitive idea is that the more money you spend on a robot, the more autonomy you will be able to design into it,” said Rodney Brooks, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology roboticist and co-founder of iRobot and Rethink Robotics. “The fact is actually the opposite is true: The cheaper the robot, the more autonomy it has.”
「眾人的直覺是，在機器人身上投入的資金越多，可在它們身上設計出來的自主性就越高，」麻省理工學院機器人學家、同時也是iRobot和Rethink Robotics這兩家公司共同創辦人的羅德尼．布魯克斯說。「事實恰好相反：越便宜的機器人自主性越高。」
For example, iRobot’s Roomba robot is autonomous, but the vacuuming task it performs is extremely simple. But the company’s Packbot is more expensive, designed for defusing bombs, and must be controlled wirelessly by people.
例如，iRobot公司的掃地機器人Roomba屬於自主型，但執行的吸塵工作極其簡單。該公司拆除炸彈的機器人Packbot更昂貴，卻必須由人類透過無線操控。
The first Darpa challenge in 2004 of robotic vehicles helped spark greater interest in artificial intelligence. And in the 2005 challenge, a $2 million prize was claimed by a group from Stanford University in California, whose vehicle defeated another in a tight race. The contest led to Google’s decision to begin a self-driving-car project.
2004年的DARPA第一屆自動車輛挑戰賽，激發對人工智慧更大的興趣。次年的挑戰賽，加州史丹福大學團隊設計的車輛激戰後勝出，贏得200萬美元獎金。此一賽事促使谷歌決定展開自動駕駛汽車計畫。
“We had a relatively easy task,” said Sebastian Thrun, who led the Stanford team in 2005 and later started the Google self-driving-car project. “Today they’re doing the hard stuff.”
賽巴斯欽．童恩是2005年機器人挑戰賽史丹福隊的領隊，後來又開展谷歌的自動駕駛汽車計畫。他說：「我們當時的任務比較簡單，他們今天執行的才是困難的任務。」
His view about the relationship between humans and robots has been shaped by the contests.
機器人挑戰賽塑造了他對人類與機器人之間關係的看法。
“I’m a big believer that technology progresses by complementing people rather than replacing them,” he said.
「我深信，科技進步是補人類的不足，而不是取代人類。」
（張佑生譯）
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