【聯合報／By DAVID STREITFELD／陳世欽譯】
A Silicon Valley Cycle Where Greed Is Rising
PALO ALTO, California — These are fabulous times in Silicon Valley.
People in their 20s are turning down deals that would make even their great-grandchildren wealthy beyond imagining. They are confident that even better deals await.
“Man, it feels more and more like 1999 every day,” tweeted Bill Gurley, one of the valley’s leading venture capitalists. “Risk is being discounted tremendously.”
That was in May, shortly after his firm, Benchmark, led a $13.5 million investment in Snapchat, the disappearing-photo site that has millions of adolescent users but no revenue.
Two-year-old Snapchat in November turned down a multibillion- dollar deal from Facebook and, perhaps, an even bigger deal from Google. On paper, that would mean a fortyfold return on Benchmark’s investment in less than a year.
Benchmark is a venture capital favorite , a backer not only of Snapchat but the photo-sharing app Instagram (sold for $1 billion to Face book), the ride-sharing service Uber (valued at $3.5 billion) and Twitter ($22 billion) . Ten of its companies have gone public in the last two years.
That is generating a huge amount of attention and an undercurrent of concern. In Silicon Valley, it may not be 1999 yet, but that fateful year — a moment when no one thought there was any risk to the wildest idea — can be seen on the horizon, drifting closer.
No one here would really mind another 1999 . As a legendary Silicon Valley bumper sticker has it, “Please God, just one more bubble.” But booms are inevitably followed by busts.
“All business activity is driven by either fear or greed, and in Silicon Valley we’re in a cycle where greed may be on the rise,” said Josh Green, a venture capitalist who is chairman of the National Venture Capital Association.
For Benchmark, that means walking a narrow line between hyping the future — second nature to everyone in Silicon Valley — and overhyping it.
John Backus, a founding partner with New Atlantic Ventures, says he believes it is more like 1996: Things are just ramping up.
Funding in the third quarter suddenly popped, up 17 percent from 2012. “I think this is the best time we’ve seen since 1999 to be a venture capitalist,” Mr. Backus said.
He expects the returns on venture capital, which have been miserable since the bust, to greatly improve this year.
Better returns would influence pension firms and other big investors to give more money to the V.C.’s, which would in turn increase the number of deals.
“I would be really scared if all of sudden the industry raised $100 billion,” Mr. Backus said. “But I don’t know how you can stop that. The greed factor kicks in. Everyone wants a piece of action.”
When the Snapchat news was breaking, Mr. Gurley did not post another reference to 1999, the year the venture capital industry went crazy and valuations of revenue-less companies like Snapchat rose to incredible levels. Instead, he promoted the service.
Half of Silicon Valley argues that Snapchat is a trend that will pass. Perhaps it will indeed rank with the likes of Google or Yahoo. Or perhaps it is Pets.com.
“I don’t think we’ll ever get back — and should never get back — to the days of the late 1990s,” Mr. Green said. “But in venture capital we live in alpha world. It’s all about taking risks. This will not be orderly.”
中譯
眼前正是矽谷好到驚人的時光。
20幾歲的年輕人紛紛拒絕能讓他們直到曾孫子那一代都富有到難以想像的交易。他們有把握，前頭還有更好的交易在等著他們。
矽谷知名創投資本家葛里透過推特表示：「好傢伙，現在每過一天就更感覺像1999年。完全不把風險當回事。」
那是今年五月，時值他的公司Benchmark領銜對照片短時間內就會消失（閱後即焚）的分享網站Snapchat注資1350萬美元之後不久。該網站有數百萬未成年使用者，卻毫無收入。
上個月，兩年前推出的Snapchat回絕了臉書以數十億美元收購的提議，可能還拒絕了谷歌更高的出價。在帳面上，那足以使Benchmark的投資不到一年即獲得40倍的報酬。
Benchmark是創投資本業的幸運兒，投資標的除了Snapchat外，還包括照片分享應用程式Instagram（以10億美元賣給臉書）、共乘租車服務網站Uber（市值35億美元）與推特（220億美元）。過去兩年旗下有10家公司上市。
這引起外界高度注意與關切。在矽谷，局面可能未到1999年的程度，然而要命的那一年（當時，再瘋狂的方案都沒人認為會有任何風險）已隱然出現在地平線上，逐漸接近。
矽谷人不在乎另一個1999年。誠如一個著名的矽谷汽車保險桿貼紙上寫的：「上帝，求你再賜下一個泡沫。」然而榮景總會以泡沫破滅收場。
現任全美創投資本協會主席的創投資本家葛林說：「驅動一切商業活動的因素非恐懼即貪婪。矽谷已經進入貪婪可能正在抬頭的循環期。」
對Benchmark而言，那意味在宣傳未來（每一名矽谷人的第二天性）與過度宣傳未來之間的狹小地帶行進。
「新大西洋創投公司」創辦合夥人貝克斯認為，目前的局面更像1996年：一切都在增溫。
今年第三季的資金挹注突然大增，比去年同期增加17%。貝克斯說：「我認為，這是我們1999年至今所見，對創投資本家最好的時期。」
泡沫破滅後，創投資本的報酬率一直很差。巴卡斯認為今年應會大幅改善。
較好的回報必將促使退休基金公司與其他主要法人對創投資金挹注更多資金，進而使交易數量增加。
貝克斯說：「如果整個產業突然籌得1000億美元，我會嚇一跳。然而我不知道該如何阻止。貪婪因素會發揮作用。人人都想分一杯羹。」
有關Snapchat的新聞公布時，葛里並未在貼文中提到創投界瘋狂，沒有營收的公司如Snapchat的估計價值達到令人不敢置信程度的1999年。相反的，他為這種服務大做宣傳。
半數的矽谷人說，Snapchat是一種終將消失的時尚。它也許會與谷歌、雅虎等公司並駕齊驅，卻也可能成為另一個Pets.com。
葛林說：「我認為，我們不會，也不該回到1990年代末。不過以創投界而言，我們還處於初期的階段。承擔風險是必要的。這不可能井然有序。」
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