【聯合報／JAMES B.STEWART／ESSAY／陳世欽譯）】
Surviving Is Coke’s Challenge
Coca-Cola has reigned for years as the world’s number-one brand, but last year both Apple and Google overtook it in Interbrand’s annual ranking. The American first lady, Michelle Obama, is on a campaign against obesity, urging Americans to drink more water. Former Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg tried to ban sales of giant-size soft drinks in New York City. And the United States Food and Drug Administration proposed food labels displaying grams of added sugar, including the high-fructose corn syrup used in Coca-Cola.
Coca-Cola has long been seen as the ultimate value stock, delivering steady returns in good times and bad. But in February, the company reported declining sales in the critical North American market along with disappointing sales growth globally, alarming investors. Shares fell more than 4 percent on the news, the most in seven months.
“Carbonated beverages are in precipitous decline,” said John Sicher, publisher of Beverage Digest. “The obesity and health headwinds are difficult and are getting stronger.”
By some measures, the Pepsi brand faces even bigger problems. But Coca-Cola is uniquely vulnerable. About 60 percent of its revenue comes from the sale of soft drinks, the bulk of them Coke and Diet Coke.
“Coca-Cola is the mother brand,” said Martin Lindstrom, a brand and marketing consultant . “The whole company is affected. Coke has to stop the erosion in the United States or it will cascade elsewhere.”
The very idea that the Coke brand may be in trouble is startling. Coca-Cola has thrived for 127 years and has survived countless passing health fads, in part because its flagship product contains both caffeine and sugar, which can be addictive.
And it’s not as if Coke isn’t moving product. Its chairman and chief executive, Muhtar Kent, told analysts that while he “wasn’t satisfied” with Coke’s performance in 2013, “Brand Coca-Cola is growing and is very healthy globally.” He continued: “Since 2010, we’ve added 1.1 billion unit cases, bringing volume to 11 billion unit cases in 2013. This is the equivalent of adding another Brazil from a brand Coca-Cola perspective.” And a Coca-Cola spokesman said the company would increase media spending by up to $1 billion by 2016 to support its brands.
But experts say Coke is at a critical juncture . Mr. Lindstrom noted that the average age of a Coke drinker was 56. “They think they’re young when they drink it,” he said. But “young people themselves are turning to alternatives like energy drinks.”
Mr. Lindstrom said surveys indicated that young people did not like highly carbonated drinks. Coke is more heavily carbonated than Pepsi, and roughly twice as carbonated as the energy drinks Red Bull and Monster, which are rapidly gaining market share, especially among the young.
The growing appeal of coffee and dark chocolate-infused beverages, especially in Japan and Europe, has shifted the flavor preference toward bitter and away from sweet, Mr. Lindstrom said.
And parents, who in previous generations often introduced their children to Coke, typically when they were ages 6 to 8, have been holding back, largely because of health concerns.
Ravi Dhar, professor of management and marketing and director of the Center for Customer Insights at the Yale School of Management, said he noticed, while walking through a room where several dozen undergraduate students were sitting and working in groups, that none was drinking a Coke or a Pepsi.
Tim Halloran, founder of the Atlanta consulting firm Brand Illumination and author of “Romancing the Brand,” who spent 10 years working for Coca-Cola, agreed that “Coke must use innovation and make news” to “make sure that a 125-plus-year-old brand keeps a modern perception and to offset health concerns .”
Last year, Coca-Cola did introduce Coca-Cola Life, which it describes as a naturally sweetened, reduced-calorie sparkling beverage, in Argentina and Chile.
And the company has its defenders, including Bruce Greenwald, a professor at Columbia Business School in New York. “It has incredible distribution and consumer loyalty,” he said.
中譯
可口可樂多年來始終是舉世第一品牌，然而在跨國行銷公司Interbrand去年公布的最新年度排名中，蘋果與谷歌都超越了它。美國第一夫人蜜雪兒‧歐巴馬積極宣導反肥胖，呼籲國人多喝水。紐約市前市長彭博曾經試圖禁止業者在紐約市販售特大罐軟性飲料。美國食品藥物管理局則建議，規定飲料業者須在產品外包裝上明確標示糖的添加量，包括可口可樂使用的高果糖玉米糖漿。
可口可樂長期被視為終極的保值股，無論經濟好壞都能為持股人創造穩定的利潤。然而該公司二月聲稱，它居關鍵地位的北美洲市場銷售額已經下滑，全球銷售額的成長也令人失望。這使投資人大為吃驚。該公司股價聞訊重挫4%以上，創下七個月以來的最大跌幅。
美國飲料行業權威刊物「飲料文摘」發行人塞克說：「碳酸飲料正急速衰退中。有關肥胖與健康的逆風不但難以克服，而且越來越強。」
就某些角度而言，百事可樂面臨的問題更大，然而可口可樂特別容易受創：大約60%的收入來自各種軟性飲料，其中大多來自Coke與健怡可樂。
品牌與行銷顧問林德史托姆說：「可口可樂是起源品牌。整個公司都受到影響。可口可樂必須設法遏止美國銷售量遞減的趨勢，否則一定會在其他地區產生連鎖效應。」
可口可樂品牌可能已經麻煩上身的說法令人錯愕。該公司茁壯成長已達127年，經歷過無數的健康風尚，原因之一是，它的旗艦產品含有足以令人上癮的咖啡因與糖。
可口可樂並不是不知與時俱進。該公司董事長兼執行長肯特向分析師表示，他對公司去年的表現「不滿意」，然而「可口可樂」這個品牌在全球「仍然不斷成長，而且非常健康」。他說：「2010年至今，我們的銷量增加11億單位箱，2013年的總銷量達110億單位箱，相當於增加巴西的全國銷售量。」可口可樂的一名發言人說，該公司計畫在2016年之前，增加10億美元的媒體開支，以支撐各種品牌。
然而專家說，可口可樂已經面臨關鍵時刻。林德史托姆指出，它的主力消費群平均56歲。他說：「他們消費時，自認還很年輕。然而年輕人已經改喝其他產品，例如能量飲料。」
林德史托姆又說，調查顯示，年輕人不喜歡碳酸含量太高的飲料。可口可樂的碳酸含量比百事可樂高出許多，約是紅牛、怪獸等能量飲料的兩倍。後二者的市占率正迅速擴大，尤其是年輕人的市場。
林德史托姆表示，咖啡與含巧克力深色飲料的魅力不斷增加，尤其是在日本與歐洲地區，這導致主要消費群偏好的口味由甜轉為苦。
前幾個世代的父母經常在小孩六到八歲時，引導他們飲用可口可樂。如今父母不再這麼做，主要是基於健康考量。
耶魯大學管理學院管理暨行銷學教授兼顧客洞察力中心主任迪哈爾表示，他曾經走過該校一個房間，有一群大學部學生分成幾組坐在裡面討論課業，他發現沒有一個人喝可口可樂或百事可樂。
著有「品牌浪漫化」一書的亞特蘭大「擦亮品牌」顧問公司創辦人哈洛倫曾為可口可樂效力10年。他說：「可口可樂必須善用創新與新聞，確保這個已有125年以上歷史的品牌保有現代感，並設法消弭有關健康的疑慮。」
去年，可口可樂在阿根廷與智利推出Coca-Cola Life，說它是熱量降低了的純天然甜味氣泡飲料。
也有人替該公司說話，包括紐約哥倫比亞大學商學院教授葛林華德。他說：「它有驚人的分銷網與消費者忠誠度。」
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