金學堂英語的部落格

Competition Intensifies In Skies Over Vietnam

HO CHI MINH CITY, Vietnam — Chien Anh, a restaurant manager here, used to fly on either Vietnam Airlines, the stateowned flag carrier, or the budget airline it mostly owns, Jetstar Pacific. But after the private VietJet Air started flights in 2011, Mr. Anh’s loyalty began to shift.

As of late last year, the startup accounted for about a quarter of the seats on domestic flights, compared with 63 percent for Vietnam Airlines and 12 percent for Jetstar Pacific, according to the CAPA-Center for Aviation, an aerospace consulting firm.

Compared with the flag carrier, VietJet is “a little cheaper and the service is the same,” Mr. Anh, 32, said recently.

Competition is heating up in Vietnam’s aviation sector just as Vietnam Airlines and other state-owned companies are considering plans for initial public offerings this year. Analysts see changes in the aviation sector as a potential bellwether of how the country’s economic reform agenda may take shape in the longer term.

Pham Ngoc Minh, chief executive of Vietnam Airlines, said the carrier was “on the right track” for an I.P.O. in the second quarter of 2014 . He said the government would retain a 65 percent to 75 percent share in Vietnam Airlines and that Jetstar Pacific, which he said would have 10 airplanes this year, planned to compete in the low-cost market. Vietnam Airlines will increase its fleet to 150 planes, from 82, by 2020, he added.

Airlines controlled by governments typically struggle to remain competitive because of state interference, and Vietnam Airlines might have trouble attracting investors when it sells shares, said Shukor Yusof, an aviation analyst at the ratings agency Standard & Poor’s.

VietJet said in February that it had completed an agreement, worth $9.1 billion, to buy 63 aircraft, with an option to buy 30 more — a sharp expansion from the current fleet of 11.

Aviation analysts say VietJet may continue to grow rapidly in the domestic market, just as AirAsia once did in its home territory of Malaysia. But, they add, the airline will face intense competition as it begins competing regionally with AirAsia and other low-cost carriers.

Luu Duc Khanh, VietJet’s managing director, brushed aside skepticism, saying that the airline plans to fly within the next three to five years not only across Asia, but also to Europe and the United States.

An I.P.O. by Vietnam Airlines might be a trial balloon that leads to systemic economic changes by Vietnamese leaders, said Edmund J. Malesky, a professor of political science at Duke University in North Carolina. But he cautioned that merely offering stock in the most successful corners of the state sector would not be lucrative because so many inefficient state companies are draining public coffers.

Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung has pledged to accelerate economic overhauls, and early indications are that the one-party government is willing to reform a state sector that has long been a drag on the economy, according to analysts who follow Vietnam’s political system. That is a topic of considerable interest to the United States and Europe, which are negotiating trade agreements with Vietnam.

There has been no clear guidance from the government about the exact scale or depth of planned changes at state-owned companies, and it is also unclear which sectors will remain sheltered by the state, and whether those companies even want to go public as the economy struggles to grow.

中譯

陳安（音譯）是胡志明市一家餐廳的經理，一向搭國營的越南航空，或越航持有大部分股權的捷星太平洋平價航空的班機。但民營的越南噴射航空2011年開航後，陳安的忠誠性也開始轉移了。

航空顧問業者香港亞太航空中心的數字顯示，去年底，噴射航空這家新興的公司已占有國內線載客數的25%，雖低於越航的63%，但已超越捷星的12%。

32歲的陳安最近表示，噴射航空比越航「便宜一點，服務水平則相同」。

越南民航業的競爭日益激烈，而越航及其他國營公司也正考慮今年股票首次上市。分析師們認為透過觀察民航業的變化，或可一窺國家經濟改革計畫較長期的樣貌。

越航執行長范玉明表示，該公司2014年第二季股票上市的計畫「進行順利」。他說，政府將保留越航65%到75%的股權；而今年客機數會達到10架的捷星，則計畫在廉價市場打拚。他並指出，到2020年時越航客機數將從目前的82架增加到150架。

標準普爾評等公司民航業分析師尤沙夫表示，政府掌控的各航空公司由於受到國家干預，一般都很難維持競爭力，而越航上市時可能不容易吸引投資人。

噴射航空二月表示，已經敲定一項金額達91億美元的協議，將購置63架客機，還保留再買30架的權利，與目前11架客機的規模相比簡直是大躍進。

民航業分析師表示，噴射航空在國內線市場可能繼續迅速成長，一如亞洲航空在馬來西亞國內線的情況。但他們指出，當噴射航空開始與亞航及其他平價航空業者競逐區域性市場時，將面臨激烈競爭。

噴射航空董事總經理盧德慶力圖消除外界疑慮，表示該公司未來三到五年不僅將飛遍亞洲，還要飛往歐洲及美國。

美國北卡羅來納州杜克大學政治學教授馬列斯基指出，越航的上市可視為越南領導人願意進行系統性經濟改革的試探氣球。但他審慎表示，僅僅是公家部門中最成功的一塊能夠上市，還不足以使國庫充盈，因為有許多缺乏效率的國營公司還在榨乾公庫。

長期觀察越南政局的分析師們指出，越南總理阮晉勇已保證將加速經濟的徹底改革，初步跡象是一黨獨大的政府願意對長期拖累經濟的國營部門進行改革。這是正在與越南談判貿易協定的美國與歐洲相當重視的課題。

國有企業改革計畫究竟會多廣、多深，目前政府尚未提出明確的指標；而且那些部門仍將受政府庇護，以及在越南經濟正力爭上游之際這些公司是否想要上市，也都還不清楚。